New National Baseline Forecasts My national death forecasts for the next 4 weeks are 9/6-12 5261 9/13-19 5178 (2-week total of 10,439) 9/20-26 5220 (3-week total of 15,659) 9/27-10/3 5220 (4-week total of 20,879) As I've taught in software estimation classes for many years, a person should present estimates with precision that's commensurate with Read more
New 14-Day National Baseline Estimate My estimates (aka forecasts) are now being included in the CDC's Ensemble model. Mine are the "CovidComplete" forecasts. CDC forecasts use 7-day periods from Sunday through Saturday. My new 14-day baseline estimate for 8/23/20 - 9/5/20, which is included in the CDC forecast, is 12,400 deaths, with a range Read more
Recent Covid-19 Fatality Forecasts are Far Too Dire With the sharp increase in positive tests being reported recently, we are starting to see some really extreme predictions about the death rates over the next few weeks–including people predicting “hundreds of thousands of deaths.” Such predictions are extreme and unfounded. Read more
We have quite a few interesting things going on in recent data.Positive Tests Up More, Deaths Still FlatThe interesting issue continues to be the significant increase in positive tests with deaths being more or less flat the past week. Daily numbers of positive tests hit several new highs this week, far higher than the previous Read more
We have quite a few interesting things going on in recent data. Positive Tests Up, Deaths Flat The interesting issue continues to be the significant increase in positive tests with deaths being more or less flat the past week. If you look at the smoothed test data, tests were basically flat (down then up) Read more
This video shows the history of positive test results in each state. Each state's point on the graph represents the number of positive tests per 1000 residents for the 7 day period indicated at the top. The solid bar represents where the state was 7 days prior to that. The hollow bar represents where Read more
These graphs show data related to the covid-19 pandemic in the US. We're starting to see more positive tests, and the trend for the past few days continues to be up. Deaths are still declining, despite the positive tests increasing significantly 10-15 days prior. Read more
These graphs show data related to the covid-19 pandemic in the US. We're starting to see more positive tests, and the trend for the past few days has definitely been up. My estimation model is predicting a slight increase in the death rate over each of the next 2 weeks. Read more
These graphs show data related to the covid-19 pandemic in the US. People have been asking whether (a) states opening up, or (b) protests are resulting in more cases of covid-19. If they are, it isn't showing up in the national data. Test cases have resumed their downward trend nationally. Read more
I'm posting an incremental update to my estimate-tracking graph today, because I think it shows how the deaths were under reported on Sunday and Monday, but on Tuesday we're all caught up. That pattern is typical, and my estimation model accounts for it. However, the under reporting this past weekend seemed more pronounced than Read more
