Evaluations of Covid-19 Forecasts
I have discontinued active forecasts related to Covid-19, but I continue to try to learn lessons from evaluating the forecasts that were submitted.
An April 2022 paper in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences found CovidComplete to be the fourth most accurate individual forecast model.
My plan is to continue publishing evaluations of the forecasts, focusing on the 2021 calendar year, that provide insights into forecasting in general.
For now, you can find both summary coronavirus forecast evaluations and detailed evaluations of forecast accuracy, including assessments of national and state forecasts, as well as weekly updates on the accuracy of the pandemic forecasts submitted to the CDC. For a different high level summary, see the forecast scorecards page.
To see all the accuracy evaluations grouped by chart type, see the deep dive evaluation page. For the most detailed coronavirus accuracy information, check out the raw forecast evaluation data on my github site.