Forecast Evaluations of Covid-19 Forecasts
Coronavirus forecasts have been submitted to the CDC by Johns Hopkins, MIT, IHME, UCLA, and several other groups. Many of these forecasts about the pandemic have received significant media attention. But how accurate are coronavirus forecasts?
Here you can find both summary coronavirus forecast evaluations and detailed evaluations of forecast accuracy, including assessments of national and state forecasts, as well as weekly updates on the accuracy of the pandemic forecasts submitted to the CDC. For a different high level summary, see the forecast scorecards page.
To see all the accuracy evaluations grouped by chart type, see the deep dive evaluation page. For forecast-by-forecast evaluations of individual forecast models, see my national forecast model and state forecast model evaluation pages. For the most detailed coronavirus accuracy information, check out the raw forecast evaluation data on my github site.