New National Baseline Forecasts My national death forecasts for the next 4 weeks are 9/6-12 5261 9/13-19 5178 (2-week total of 10,439) 9/20-26 5220 (3-week total of 15,659) 9/27-10/3 5220 (4-week total of 20,879) As I've taught in software estimation classes for many years, a person should present estimates with precision that's commensurate with Read more
New 14-Day National Baseline Estimate My estimates (aka forecasts) are now being included in the CDC's Ensemble model. Mine are the "CovidComplete" forecasts. CDC forecasts use 7-day periods from Sunday through Saturday. My new 14-day baseline estimate for 8/23/20 - 9/5/20, which is included in the CDC forecast, is 12,400 deaths, with a range Read more
Recent Covid-19 Fatality Forecasts are Far Too Dire With the sharp increase in positive tests being reported recently, we are starting to see some really extreme predictions about the death rates over the next few weeks–including people predicting “hundreds of thousands of deaths.” Such predictions are extreme and unfounded. Read more
I'm posting an incremental update to my estimate-tracking graph today, because I think it shows how the deaths were under reported on Sunday and Monday, but on Tuesday we're all caught up. That pattern is typical, and my estimation model accounts for it. However, the under reporting this past weekend seemed more pronounced than Read more
Estimation Review for 5/25 Estimates The estimates made on 5/25 are now complete so it's time to review how they did. This set of estimates was more accurate than the earlier estimates on a daily basis, but the cumulative estimates were further off. Average error on the daily estimates was 20%, median was 12%, Read more
Estimation Review for 5/13 Estimates The estimates made on 5/13 are now complete so it's time to review how they did. Error is calculated using "Balanced relative Error (BRE)". This set of estimates was more accurate than the first set. Average error on the daily estimates was 24%, median was 17%, and 67% of Read more
Estimation Review for 4/30 Estimates The estimates made on 4/30 are now complete so it's time to review how they did. Error is calculated using "Balanced relative Error (BRE)". Technique #1 did OK. Average error on the daily estimates was 33%, median was 19%, and 75% of the estimates were within 25% of actual Read more
I've been following the data long enough that it's time to make some estimates. These estimates are based on the observation that there is a 12-day lag between positive test results and deaths [Note: later this was updated to 13 days]. Based on the combination of positive tests 12 days earlier and an approximation Read more
