I’m posting an incremental update to my estimate-tracking graph today, because I think it shows how the deaths were under reported on Sunday and Monday, but on Tuesday we’re all caught up. That pattern is typical, and my estimation model accounts for it. However, the under reporting this past weekend seemed more pronounced than usual.
New positive tests are now down again for the 7-day cycle, AND the positive test % continues downward. To me this all adds up to the idea that we’re going to start seeing a more rapid drop in the death count in another 10 days or so. My model says we’ll be at about 450 deaths reported for 6/21 and 300 for 6/22. Those are the lowest daily projections we’ve had since March 25/26.
