Coronavirus forecast model performance on national forecasts
Models are in alphabetical order. The ideal model would have all forecasts on the red line. The further from the red line, the higher the error. A model with accuracy that is good enough for practical purposes will have nearly all points within the blue lines. Some models did not provide forecasts for certain periods. Those periods are indicated with a vertical dash on the red line. Only forecasts that were eligible for inclusion in the Ensemble model are shown.
Check out the alternate view of forecast model performance below this set of graphs, which makes it easier to see models’ tendencies toward overestimation and underestimation over time, and by forecast date.
The overall accuracy of currently active models is shown on the graphs on the main forecast evaluation page.