New National Baseline Forecasts My national death forecasts for the next 4 weeks are 9/6-12 5261 9/13-19 5178 (2-week total of 10,439) 9/20-26 5220 (3-week total of 15,659) 9/27-10/3 5220 (4-week total of 20,879) As I've taught in software estimation classes for many years, a person should present estimates with precision that's commensurate with Read more
These assessments show state-level data that can help assess each state's readiness to reopen.
New 14-Day National Baseline Estimate My estimates (aka forecasts) are now being included in the CDC's Ensemble model. Mine are the "CovidComplete" forecasts. CDC forecasts use 7-day periods from Sunday through Saturday. My new 14-day baseline estimate for 8/23/20 - 9/5/20, which is included in the CDC forecast, is 12,400 deaths, with a range Read more
These assessments show state-level data that can help assess each state's readiness to reopen.
These assessments show state-level data that can help assess each state's readiness to reopen.
These assessments show state-level data that can help assess the state of the pandemic in each province.
Test Positivity The percentage of virus tests that show positive results ("positivity") is an indicator of the percentage of the total infections that is being identified through testing. The higher the positivity is, the lower the percentage of overall infections being detected is, all other factors being held constant. Most states started with high Read more
These assessments show state-level data that can help assess each state's readiness to reopen.
There's a New York Times article today that makes some comments about percentage of positive tests in each state. It's quite critical, and I think it whitewashes the challenge of building the surge capacity that's needed to respond quickly. Most states had testing pretty well under control at the end of May, but with Read more
These assessments show state-level data that can help assess each state's readiness to reopen.
