These graphs show data related to the covid-19 pandemic in the US. Today I'm showing the smoothed graphs first, because I think it's easier to see the trend in (a) increase in positive tests, (b) decrease in positive test percentage, and (c) decrease in overall deaths. Read more
This video shows the history of positive test results in each state. Each state's point on the graph represents the number of positive tests per 1000 residents for the 7 day period indicated at the top. The solid bar represents where the state was 7 days prior to that. The hollow bar represents where Read more
These graphs show data related to the covid-19 pandemic in the US.
Estimation Review for 5/25 Estimates The estimates made on 5/25 are now complete so it's time to review how they did. This set of estimates was more accurate than the earlier estimates on a daily basis, but the cumulative estimates were further off. Average error on the daily estimates was 20%, median was 12%, Read more
These graphs show national-level data related to the covid-19 pandemic in the US.
These graphs show data related to the covid-19 pandemic in the US.
These log graphs provide a different perspective on the rate of Covid-19 positive tests and deaths. On most graphs, the x-axis is time. On these graphs, the x-axis is the total number of cases to date, and the y-axis is the number of cases added incrementally each week. As the pandemic winds down, the Read more
Estimation Review for 5/13 Estimates The estimates made on 5/13 are now complete so it's time to review how they did. Error is calculated using "Balanced relative Error (BRE)". This set of estimates was more accurate than the first set. Average error on the daily estimates was 24%, median was 17%, and 67% of Read more
Estimation Review for 4/30 Estimates The estimates made on 4/30 are now complete so it's time to review how they did. Error is calculated using "Balanced relative Error (BRE)". Technique #1 did OK. Average error on the daily estimates was 33%, median was 19%, and 75% of the estimates were within 25% of actual Read more
I've been following the data long enough that it's time to make some estimates. These estimates are based on the observation that there is a 12-day lag between positive test results and deaths [Note: later this was updated to 13 days]. Based on the combination of positive tests 12 days earlier and an approximation Read more
