State Open-Readiness Assessments for 6/14/20
These assessments show state-level data that can help assess each state's readiness to reopen.
US Data Updates 6/14/20
These graphs show data related to the covid-19 pandemic in the US. We're starting to see more positive tests, and the trend for the past few days has definitely been up. My estimation model is predicting a slight increase in the death rate over each of the next 2 weeks. Read more
State Positive Test Percentages (Positivity) 6/13/20
The percentage of virus tests that show positive results ("positivity") is an indicator of the percentage of the total infections that is being identified through testing. The higher the positivity is, the lower the percentage of overall infections being detected is. Most states started with high positivity (in some cases 30-40%) and are now Read more
State Log Graph Updates 6/12/20
These log graphs provide a different perspective on the rate of Covid-19 positive tests and deaths. On most graphs, the x-axis is time. On these graphs, the x-axis is the total number of cases to date, and the y-axis is the number of cases added incrementally each week. As the pandemic winds down, the Read more
US Data Updates 6/11/20
These graphs show data related to the covid-19 pandemic in the US. People have been asking whether (a) states opening up, or (b) protests are resulting in more cases of covid-19. If they are, it isn't showing up in the national data. Test cases have resumed their downward trend nationally. Read more
Why Data Smoothing Must be Based on 7 Day Periods
Many states do not report results daily. Many states show weekly cycles of under-reporting on certain days and over-reporting on other days. For example, my state (WA) does not report on Sundays. Consequently, I smooth test data and fatality data on the basis of a 7-day cycle. Smoothing periods shorter than 7 days or Read more
State Testing Trends – 6/10/20
These graphs show data related to the covid-19 pandemic in the US.
State Raw Data- 6/10/20
These graphs show data related to the covid-19 pandemic in the US.
Background on Infection Models
Positive test cases are the foundation for calculating the total number of infections, as well as for trending the number of infections. However, test cases account for only a fraction of total infections, due to many people being asymptomatic and not seeking testing, limited test availability early in the pandemic, state strategies of testing Read more
State Contagiousness – 6/10/20
These graphs show data related to the covid-19 pandemic in the US.
