Performance of Coronavirus Forecast Models on State Forecasts

This page provides forecast-by-forecast details of the accuracy of Covid-19 state death forecast models submitted to the CDC for inclusion in the Ensemble model. This includes models from Johns Hopkins (JHU), MIT, and IHME, as well as the Ensemble model and CovidComplete. For summary-level evaluations, see my main forecast evaluation page. For detailed forecast model evaluations for national forecasts see the national forecast evaluation page. For the most detailed coronavirus forecast accuracy information, you can check out the raw forecast evaluation data on my github site.

Baseline Model Performance on Recent State Forecasts

CovidComplete Performance on Recent State Forecasts

Coronavirus forecast model performance on national forecasts

Models are in alphabetical order. The ideal model would have all forecasts on the red line. The further from the red line, the higher the error.  A model with accuracy that is good enough for practical purposes will have nearly all points within the blue lines. Some models did not provide forecasts for certain periods. Those periods are indicated with a vertical dash on the red line. Only forecasts that were eligible for inclusion in the Ensemble model are shown.

Check out the alternate view of forecast model performance below this set of graphs, which makes it easier to see models’ tendencies toward overestimation and underestimation over time, and by forecast date.

The overall accuracy of currently active models is shown on the graphs on the main forecast evaluation page.

Forecast model performance on the most recent state forecasts

Forecast model history on state forecasts