Estimation Review for 5/13 Estimates The estimates made on 5/13 are now complete so it's time to review how they did. Error is calculated using "Balanced relative Error (BRE)". This set of estimates was more accurate than the first set. Average error on the daily estimates was 24%, median was 17%, and 67% of Read more
Tech Talk: Covid-19 Data and Estimates—Week in Review. I give a weekly update on Covid-19 data, trends, and estimates. These are slides from that presentation. The presentations are normally on Friday mornings and are free. You can see the schedule and sign up here.
Estimation Review for 4/30 Estimates The estimates made on 4/30 are now complete so it's time to review how they did. Error is calculated using "Balanced relative Error (BRE)". Technique #1 did OK. Average error on the daily estimates was 33%, median was 19%, and 75% of the estimates were within 25% of actual Read more
I've been following the data long enough that it's time to make some estimates. These estimates are based on the observation that there is a 12-day lag between positive test results and deaths [Note: later this was updated to 13 days]. Based on the combination of positive tests 12 days earlier and an approximation Read more
17 Theses on Software Estimation (Expanded) This post is part of an ongoing discussion with Ron Jeffries, which originated from some comments I made about #NoEstimates. You can read my original "17 Theses on Software Estimation" post here. That post has been completely subsumed by this post if you want to just read this one. You Read more
17 Theses on Software Estimation (with apologies to Martin Luther for the title) Arriving late to the #NoEstimates discussion, I’m amazed at some of the assumptions that have gone unchallenged, and I’m also amazed at the absence of some fundamental points that no one seems to have made so far. The point of this article Read more
#NoEstimates - Response to Ron Jeffries Ron Jeffries posted a thoughtful response to my #NoEstimates video. While I like some elements of his response, it still ultimately glosses over problems with #NoEstimates. I'll walk through Ron's critique and show where I think it makes good points vs. where it misses the point. Ron's First Remodel of my Kitchen Read more
