Estimates for Total US Deaths – Next 12 Days

By Steve McConnell|2020-06-12T15:21:01+00:00May 2nd, 2020|0 Comments

I’ve been following the data long enough that it’s time to make some estimates. These estimates are based on the observation that there is a 12-day lag between positive test results and deaths [Note: later this was updated to 13 days]. Based on the combination of positive tests 12 days earlier and an approximation of naive CFR, I’ve produced daily estimates for 5/1 – 5/12, as shown below. The daily estimates could be off quite a bit, but I think the cumulative estimate will be pretty close.

About the Author: Steve McConnell

Steve McConnell has been a leading expert in software estimation, software measurement, and software engineering practices for more than 20 years. Most recently, he has used his expertise in data analysis, measurement, and forecasting to analyze and forecast Covid-19 data. His Covid-19 forecasts are included in the CDC's forecasting model. Steve is the author of Code Complete, which has been cited as the most popular software development book of all time. Readers of Software Development magazine named him one of the three most influential people in the software industry along with Bill Gates and Linus Torvalds. Steve’s most recent book is More Effective Agile: A Roadmap for Software Leaders. At Construx, he acts as CEO, founder, and Chief Software Engineer. Steve has served in numerous software industry roles, including Editor in Chief of IEEE Software magazine, Chair of the IEEE Computer Society’s Professional Activities Board, member of the Panel of Experts of the SWEBOK project, member of the Computer Science Advisory Board of Whitman College, chair of the Computer Science Advisory Board of Seattle University, and host of Construx’s annual Software Leadership Summit.