This site contains graphs and scorecards that evaluate the performance of covid forecast models, as well as current covid forecasts from my forecast model, CovidComplete.

An April 2022 paper in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences found CovidComplete to be the fourth most accurate individual forecast model.

Note: As of early 2022, I am no longer providing state covid scorecards or other covid data graphs on this website.

Covid-19 US and State Forecasts

CDC Forecast Model Scorecards

CDC Forecast Evaluations