Covid Complete Forecasts

This page shows my current forecasts, most recent forecasts submitted to the CDC, how my most recent forecasts are tracking, and prior forecasts.

As the author of Software Estimation: Demystifying the Black Art, it was natural for me to apply my forecasting skills to the pandemic. I began forecasting in May 2020, and I saw that my 2 week forecasts tracked within 5-10%, but I was seeing forecasts reported in the media that missed by 50-100% or more.

For the July 2020 forecast shown at right, my error of 7.2% for the period would have made it the third most accurate out of the 27 forecasts submitted to the CDC. So in August 2020 I began officially submitting forecasts to the CDC for use in their Ensemble model.

Since then, CovidComplete, has ranked among the most accurate models for nearly every forecast period. An April 2022 paper in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences found CovidComplete to be the fourth most accurate forecast model overall. You can see more detailed evaluations on my forecast evaluation page

Current Forecasts

Historical Forecast Performance of CovidComplete’s National Forecasts