Estimation Update

I'm posting an incremental update to my estimate-tracking graph today, because I think it shows how the deaths were under reported on Sunday and Monday, but on Tuesday we're all caught up. That pattern is typical, and my estimation model accounts for it. However, the under reporting this past weekend seemed more pronounced than Read more

By |2020-06-15T23:39:36+00:00June 10th, 2020|Tags: , , , |0 Comments

Estimate Review and Update 6/6/20

Estimation Review for 5/25 Estimates The estimates made on 5/25 are now complete so it's time to review how they did. This set of estimates was more accurate than the earlier estimates on a daily basis, but the cumulative estimates were further off. Average error on the daily estimates was 20%, median was 12%, Read more

By |2020-06-12T15:17:29+00:00June 6th, 2020|Tags: , , |0 Comments

Estimate Review and Update 5/25/20

Estimation Review for 5/13 Estimates The estimates made on 5/13 are now complete so it's time to review how they did. Error is calculated using "Balanced relative Error (BRE)". This set of estimates was more accurate than the first set. Average error on the daily estimates was 24%, median was 17%, and 67% of Read more

By |2020-06-12T15:19:31+00:00May 25th, 2020|Tags: , , |0 Comments

Estimate Review and Update 5/13/20

Estimation Review for 4/30 Estimates The estimates made on 4/30 are now complete so it's time to review how they did. Error is calculated using "Balanced relative Error (BRE)". Technique #1 did OK. Average error on the daily estimates was 33%, median was 19%, and 75% of the estimates were within 25% of actual Read more

By |2020-06-12T15:20:20+00:00May 13th, 2020|Tags: , , |0 Comments

Estimates for Total US Deaths – Next 12 Days

I've been following the data long enough that it's time to make some estimates. These estimates are based on the observation that there is a 12-day lag between positive test results and deaths [Note: later this was updated to 13 days]. Based on the combination of positive tests 12 days earlier and an approximation Read more

By |2020-06-12T15:21:01+00:00May 2nd, 2020|Tags: , , |0 Comments