My CDC Ensemble Model Covid-19 Forecasts – 9/5/20 Update

New National Baseline Forecasts My national death forecasts for the next 4 weeks are 9/6-12   5261 9/13-19  5178 (2-week total of 10,439) 9/20-26  5220 (3-week total of 15,659) 9/27-10/3  5220 (4-week total of 20,879) As I've taught in software estimation classes for many years, a person should present estimates with precision that's commensurate with Read more

By |2020-09-09T18:56:28+00:00September 9th, 2020|Tags: , , , |0 Comments

Covid-19 Estimate Update 8/23/20 – Estimates Included in CDC Forecast

New 14-Day National Baseline Estimate My estimates (aka forecasts) are now being included in the CDC's Ensemble model. Mine are the "CovidComplete" forecasts. CDC forecasts use 7-day periods from Sunday through Saturday. My new 14-day baseline estimate for 8/23/20 - 9/5/20, which is included in the CDC forecast, is 12,400 deaths, with a range Read more

By |2020-08-27T23:16:48+00:00August 27th, 2020|Tags: , , |0 Comments

State Positive Test Percentages (Positivity) 7/23/20

Test Positivity The percentage of virus tests that show positive results ("positivity") is an indicator of the percentage of the total infections that is being identified through testing. The higher the positivity is, the lower the percentage of overall infections being detected is, all other factors being held constant.  Most states started with high Read more

By |2020-07-25T01:01:42+00:00July 25th, 2020|Tags: , , , |0 Comments

State Positive Test Percentages (Positivity) 7/9/20

There's a New York Times article today that makes some comments about percentage of positive tests in each state. It's quite critical, and I think it whitewashes the challenge of building the surge capacity that's needed to respond quickly. Most states had testing pretty well under control at the end of May, but with Read more

By |2020-07-11T19:00:30+00:00July 11th, 2020|Tags: , , , |0 Comments
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